The NBA Rookie of the Year award has historically favored the most productive rookie scorers. In the last decade, half of the recipients of this prestigious award topped the scoring charts among their peers. Furthermore, a trend favoring high draft picks is evident, with half of the past 16 winners being No. 1 overall picks. Most of these winners were selected within the top five picks, with only a few exceptions such as Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon standing out for their achievements despite being drafted later.
In terms of position, big men have had limited success in capturing the Rookie of the Year honor over the last two decades. Since 2003, only four big men—Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, and most recently, Victor Wembanyama—have won the award. The scarcity of successful big men intersects with this year's draft class, which is viewed as one of the least promising in NBA history.
2024 Draft Class: Unproven and Underwhelming?
This year's crop of rookies has been labeled uninspiring, with the top two picks seen as developmental projects who play positions other than guard. Reed Sheppard, the highest-picked guard in this year's draft, will need to navigate a challenging rookie year with Houston, where he faces fierce competition for playing time. "They badly need his shooting," an insider noted, emphasizing the Rockets' desperate need for Sheppard's skills.
Other notable draftees from the 2024 class are struggling to find their footing in the NBA. Stephon Castle, for instance, has a glaring issue with his shooting, managing just 26.7% from beyond the arc during his time at UConn. Similarly, Ron Holland’s 23.9% 3-point shooting percentage in the G-League hardly inspires confidence. And then there's Alex Sarr, who managed just 19.1% shooting in the Summer League. "Playing for Washington kills Sarr’s candidacy because he has nobody to set him up," shared an analyst, pointing to Sarr's unfavorable circumstances.
Team Situations and Obstacles
Several rookies are also facing tough competition from established players on their respective teams. Zach Edey appears to be a rare guarantee with the Grizzlies, where he's relatively certain to start. Edey, who is expected to model his game on Jonas Valanciunas, finds himself in a favorable position to make an immediate impact.
Conversely, Rob Dillingham was drafted by the Timberwolves to eventually replace the veteran Mike Conley, implying that he might have to wait his turn. In Portland, Donovan Clingan's development could be stunted as he sits behind Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III in the rotation. Similarly, Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are competing with rookie Zaccharie Risacher at forward on Trae Young’s squad, further complicating the situation for the newcomers.
Isaiah Collier encounters a significant wall in the form of Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, who block his path to significant playing time. Dalton Knecht also finds his opportunities limited by the presence of Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell on the Lakers. Such scenarios highlight the uphill battles many of these rookies face in earning prominent roles on their teams.
Outside the Lottery
Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr. both garnered some votes last season in rookie balloting but did not seriously contend for the Rookie of the Year award. Their experience underscores how difficult it is for rookies outside the lottery picks to make a significant impact.
The 2024 NBA rookie landscape is indeed challenging and mostly filled with unproven talent and development projects. As the season progresses, it will be interesting to see if any of these rookies can defy the odds, overcome their less-than-ideal situations, and emerge as standout performers. Given the trends and the competition, this year’s battle for Rookie of the Year could be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.