The San Diego Padres are set to face the Cleveland Guardians in an enticing interleague matchup at Progressive Field tonight, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 PM ET. Both teams are vying to solidify their respective positions within their divisions, and with key starting pitchers taking the mound, the game promises to be a thrilling contest.
This evening's game sees the Guardians enter as money line favorites at -139, while the Padres are positioned as underdogs at +118. The Padres, holding a record of 50-49, sit third in the NL West and are seven games behind the leading Dodgers. Their opponents, the Cleveland Guardians, lead the AL Central with an impressive 58-37 record, despite a recent rough patch in home games.
Pitching Duel: Waldron vs. Bibee
San Diego will rely on Matt Waldron, who has been a consistent presence in the rotation with 19 starts this season. Waldron boasts a 5-8 record and a 3.71 ERA. Opponents have managed a .225 batting average against him, and he maintains a solid WHIP of 1.17. However, Waldron's last outing on July 12th was less than stellar, as he conceded four earned runs.
On the mound for the Guardians is Tanner Bibee, who has established himself as a reliable starter this season. Over 19 starts, Bibee has accumulated a 7-4 record with a 3.77 ERA and a commendable WHIP of 1.12. His performance includes seven quality starts and an impressive strikeout rate, averaging 10.54 strikeouts per nine innings, amounting to a total of 123 strikeouts. However, like Waldron, Bibee also gave up four earned runs in his last outing against the Tigers, snapping a streak of two consecutive wins.
Team Performance and Recent Trends
The Padres are looking to bounce back after a 6-3 defeat to the Atlanta Braves. Randy Vasquez, who started the last game, allowed four runs over five innings, leading to the loss. The bullpen did little to stem the tide, giving up an additional two runs in the eighth inning. The Padres have struggled lately, losing two of their last three games against the Braves and dropping their last two games as underdogs. Despite these setbacks, they maintain a decent road record of 24-21 and an overall season record of 50-49. As underdogs this season, they have a near-even 21-20 record.
In contrast, the Guardians have had difficulty protecting their home turf, with a 1-4 record in their last five games at Progressive Field. Their recent form hasn't been stellar either, holding a 4-6 record in their previous ten matches. Their latest series against the Tampa Bay Rays ended in a 2-0 loss, marked by Ben Lively's initial success followed by a challenging third inning. Despite these struggles, the Guardians continue to be a formidable force with a team batting average of .243, ranking 11th in MLB, and possessing the 10th most home runs in the league.
Key Players to Watch
For the Padres, all eyes will be on Jurickson Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr., who are tied for the team lead with 14 home runs each. Profar has been particularly productive with 59 RBIs and a .318 batting average over his last seven games. Manny Machado, coming off a three-game hitting streak, will also be crucial for the Padres' offensive push.
The Guardians will rely heavily on the offensive prowess of José Ramírez and Josh Naylor. Ramirez, who is second in the league with 77 RBIs, has also hit 23 home runs and maintains a .271 batting average. Naylor is not far behind with 70 RBIs, making the pair a critical force for Cleveland's lineup.
Game Outlook and Projections
The over/under line for this matchup is set at 7.5 runs. With Cleveland games averaging 8.7 runs and Padres games at 8.9 runs per game, there's potential for a high-scoring evening. Historically, 58.6% of Padres games and 66.3% of Guardians games have gone over the set line this season.
Projections for this game suggest the Guardians will emerge with a close 6-5 victory. Both teams are expected to tally nine hits each, with Bibee projected to notch six strikeouts and Waldron five. In a statistical twist, Bibee is anticipated to yield fewer earned runs compared to Waldron, further tipping the scales in favor of the Guardians.