In a disheartening turn of events at Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins witnessed a promising lead slip through their fingers, culminating in a 4-3 loss to the Cleveland Guardians. The late surge by Cleveland was ignited by Kyle Manzardo’s two-run homer off Griffin Jax in the bottom of the eighth, a blow that cemented the Twins' downfall.
Over their last 27 games, the Twins have endured a rough stretch, dropping 18 of these contests. This consistent underperformance has significantly impacted their position, narrowing their lead for the third AL wild-card spot to a precarious 1.5 games. As of September 5, FanGraphs had evaluated the Twins' postseason odds at a promising 95.4%. However, this figure has since plummeted to 76.4%, reflecting their current struggles.
Offensive Struggles Continue
A critical factor in the Twins' recent slump has been their inability to generate offense. In 12 of their last 27 games, the team failed to score more than three runs. Their batting statistics during this period tell a dismal story: a .236 batting average, a .296 on-base percentage, and a .381 slugging percentage. When the bases are empty, they are hitting .272, placing them among the fourth worst in the league in such situations.
Manager Rocco Baldelli highlighted the offensive woes, stating, "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together." This urgency to improve at the plate encapsulates the sentiment within the Twins' locker room.
Underperforming Bullpen and Rotation
In addition to offensive struggles, the bullpen, which maintained a respectable 3.84 ERA and was ranked tenth in win probability added in their first 123 games, has faltered significantly in the recent 27-game stretch. The bullpen's ERA has ballooned to 5.47, and they have a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added record. Griffin Jax echoed the weariness felt by many, saying, "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
The rest of the Twins' rotation hasn't fared much better, posting a 6.07 ERA and averaging just 4.38 innings per start during this period. The team has been in the lead during the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and was tied at that juncture in two additional games. Despite the late leads, the lack of a dependable bullpen and starting rotation has led to these crushing defeats.
Managerial and Team Reflections
Reflecting on the season’s trajectory, Baldelli said, "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this." This self-evaluation and the need for identity come at a time when the Twins' margin for error is shrinking rapidly. "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow," noted pitcher Pablo López.
Roster Adjustments
In a bid to patch up their leaky rotation, the Twins recently claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin, who posted a 4.86 ERA in both starting and relief roles, is seen as a versatile asset. Derek Falvey commented on Irvin’s acquisition, saying, "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
As they press forward, the Twins face competition from the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, with both teams trailing by two games in the standings. The Tigers, particularly, have been on a tear, going 23-10 in their last 33 games. Nonetheless, the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams, a slender advantage they must capitalize on.
On an individual level, Max Kepler’s expected return offers a glimmer of hope for the beleaguered roster. Additionally, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown signs of resurgence, going a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month.
In spite of their recent tribulations, the Twins' path to the postseason remains within reach. However, achieving this will necessitate improved performances across the board, consistency at the plate, and a rejuvenated bullpen.